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Updated 1st Round Projection

Well, the Miami/ GA Tech game got rained out. I am waiting to see what the weather will do today until I try to back out there.

There have been alot of rumors flying around as the draft approaches.

Jim Callis did a nice job on compiling some prospects who are moving up and down here ( I think it is free): http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=266

Also, Saber Scouting had a real nice article on some of the Boras clients here: http://saberscouting.com/2008/04/07/borasclientprice/#more-84

Rays: Tim Beckham
Rumors are that the Rays want a position player. With Alvarez's asking price possibly astronomical, expect Beckham here. Also, the Rays need catchers so Skipworth and Posey will at least get looks.

Pirates: Pedro Alvarez
The Pirates NEED to take him. However, Jonathan Mayo over at MiLB.com heard that the Pirates could take Gordon Beckham here. While Beckham is solid, he is not a top 3 pick. Taking him would not look good.

Royals: Brian Matusz
I think Crow is better, but the asking price for him is too high for the Royals. If Tim Beckham was here I think the Royals would love him.

Orioles: Aaron Crow
Would the Orioles sign two HUGE contracts two years in a row? They need to if they are serious about this rebuilding thing.

Giants: Kyle Skipworth
What to do what do to. This is a tough pick. Tanner Schepper and Shooter Hunt would be pitchers here.

Marlins: Yonder Alonso
I am not a big fan of Alonso. However, he should be inexpensive and a local pick.

Reds: Tim Melville
This pick almost makes too much sense. Posey or Skipworth could make sense as well.

White Sox: Justin Smoak
The system needs anything and everything. Smoak's stock has fallen due to high expectations. He is still an outstanding prospect.

Nationals: Buster Posey
The Nationals have been pitcher oriented. Having the chance to get an offensive oriented catcher is too good to pass up. Skipworth and Posey are interchangeable in that it comes down to preference and whether Skipworth can stay at catcher. They would take Skipworth too I think. Beckham is a possibility as well.

Astros: Gordon Beckham
This is where he projects to go, and won't be a tough sign. Perfect for the Astros

Rangers: Tanner Scheppers
If Hosmer's bonus demands are not ridiculous, we could see him here.

Athletics: Shooter Hunt
Frontline college starter makes sense

Cardinals: Aaron Hicks
They could go really any direction here. I think they would love Shceppers or Hunt. Chrisitan Freidhich is a possibility but there are some major questions about his control, velo, and how good is CB actually is.

Twins: Dennis Raben
Honestly, who knows what the Twins will do? I can just tell you it will not cost a lot of money.

Dodgers: Alex Meyer
Another high school pitcher? Why not. Go with what works for you.

Brewers: Josh Fields
I am trying to predict a surprise here. Really, the best players still there aren't typical Brewers guys. Fields could help the Brewers pen down the stretch as well.

Blue Jays: Ethan Martin
Blue Jays have shown they will take high school players. Martin has shot up the draft boards and is one of the hardest throwers in the draft

Mets: Eric Hosmer
Assuming they will spend money on the best talent, it comes down to Hosmer and Cole. I think Cole's mechanics and makeup will scare some teams off.

Cubs: Jemile Weeks
Seems very similar to Tony Thomas, 2nd round pick last year.

Seattle Mariners: Brett Hunter
Assuming he is healthy. They like to move guys quick, and he is a quick mover. Potential closer.

Tigers: Gerrit Cole
Kind of the obvious choice here in that they figure to swipe up the best talent that falls.

Mets: Lance Lynn
I think the Mets will try to go hitter/pitcher with their first two picks. While they do have the money, I do not think they will spend $8 million on the first round.

Padres: Christian Freidrich
Essentially, I go down the list and look for a signable college player for the Padres. I honestly think he will fall this far.

Phillies: Brett DeVall
I cannot imagine them NOT taking a pitcher.

Rockies: Brett Wallace
Pick makes sense for them. Watch the Brewers take him and try to make him into a catcher. Only kidding. If teams think he can play 3B, he will go way before this - maybe to the Brewers actually.

Diamondbacks: Kyle Lobstein
Polished lefty from Flagstaff

Twins: Connor Gillespie
Just a guess. Trying to predict a surprise.

Yankees: Sonny Gray
Really just a guess. In reality, the Yankees will take whoever drops more than likely.

Indians: Tyson Ross
Polished college pitcher. Enough said for the Indians.

Red Sox: Reese Havens
Red Sox wanted him out of high school, offered him over slot money. His performance this year warrants a top 40 pick so this is not a stretch.

MIAMI @ GEORGIA TECH

Series is going down here in ATL this weekend. I will make it out to at least 1 of the games and will give an In Depth on potential first rounders Dennis Raben, Jemile Weeks, and Yonder Alonso.
I will also try to post video of BP...depending on how well my camera takes video.

While I am no expert scout, I do have experience with evaluating amateur talent for college football teams. So, same basic athleticsm principles. If you are not familiar with how scouts evaluates baseball players, SaberScouting.com gives an outstanding overview.

Essentially, beyond the 5 tools, I look at "God given" talents that some players just posses and then other areas where coaching or hard work can improve. For example - when I wrote about Gordan Beckham's approach...the fact that he has only walked 9 times is not alarming because that can easily be improved upon. However, if a player can't recognize off speed pitches that is a big problem because a coach can't just teach a player how to do that.

Top 5 High School Pitchers

It seems to me that the high school pitching crop is taking a little bit of a hit with 2 months to go before the draft. There are no Porcellos, Kershaws, or Parkers in this draft.
I would also like to point out that Peter Gammons wrote an article showing that less than 4% of high school LHP drafted make it to the Pros.

Tim Melville - RHP- Tall, projectable RHP with low 90s FB and workable knuckcurve.

Gerrit Cole -RHP- Throws legit heat, mid to upper 90's. Major questions on signablity and makeup.

Alex Meyer - RHP - 6'7 - came out of nowhere last year and has played well in showcases throwing his mid 90s heat. Baseball America convered The perfect Game Show Case and had him ranked ahead of Cole. Do not be suprised if he is taken before Cole in the draft.

Brett DeVall - LHP - DeVall is actually the second best high school LHP according to BA (behind Kyle Lobstein). However, I prefer Devall in that he is 6'5 and lanky with very solid mecnanics. Throws low 90s and has a solid slider/slurve and shows a feel for a change up. BA also had Gray listed ahead of Devall.

Sonny Gray- RHP - Concerns will be there about his size. He is about 5'10 or 5'11. He does have a plus FB and a power CB, however, lets remeber Tim Lincecum is the exception to the rule.

Melville v. Cole

Size:

Cole is 6’3 about 190 pounds. Melville is 6’5 200 pounds. Both are tall, lean pitchers with room to fill out and potentially add some velocity.

Mechanics:

Melville has very good mechanics for anyone, let alone someone who is 6’5. He stays over the rubber well, keeps him balance, and finishes in good position. His delivery is smooth. There is a reason why scouts love his projection.

Cole’s mechanics are not as good as Melville’s. His shoulders are sloped over his feet, which usually leads to inconsistency and balance problems. His arm action is very long and somewhat slings the ball from a ¾ arm angle.

Stuff:

Cole has the edge in velocity. “He may have the best FB in the draft” as one executive told Baseball America. He has a legit mid 90’s FB that sits 93,94 and has touched 98. Melville has good velo, 92, 93. But, he has the size and mechanics to envision more on the way.

Coles slider is pretty solid, Melville throws a knuckle curve. Both changeups are nothing to write home about.

Makeup:

There have been concerns over Cole’s makeup. Not to mention Boras is his adviser.

Opinion:

I think Melville’s size, projecability, and Cole’s signablity concerns make Melville a better pick. Just based on pure stuff, Cole has the edge right now, but at a high cost.

Cole will drop in the draft, while Melville will most likely be a top 10 pick.

Top 5 High School Positions Players

The high school position prospects crop has gold in there at the top, but after the top 5 there is not much. There will probably be 5 high school position players taken in the 1st round. Most teams will be grabbing the established college pitchers and position players if I had to guess.
The first thing you will notice about the list is the abscence of Harold Martinez. He has taken a huge dive in the eyes of scouts. Maybe out of the 1st and supp rounds. He has looked terrible at the plate early on. With that said, Isaac Galloway has some tools but is not anymore proven.


1) Tim Beckham
Tim Beckham is one of the only legit 5 tool players in the draft. His power will need to develop as it is lagging behind his other tools. Most importantly, there is no doubt he can stay at SS.

2) Aaron Hicks
Hicks is the other legit 5 tool player in the draft. I think his tools are actually better than Beckham's. Obviously the fact that Beckham plays and can stay at SS gives him the edge. Like I said in the "Top Prospect" on Hicks, he is an extremley speedy CF with a great arm at least. His frame is extremley projectable and if he adds power and can hit consistently he is very comparable to Cameron Maybin.
PLUS, he is a potential setup/closer in the bull pen. So a team could let him hit for 3 years, if that does not work out, move him to the bull pen with is mid 90's FB and power CB. He is as safe as of pick as a high school player can be.

3)Eric Hosmer
Hicks over Hosmer? This is just a personal preference. Based on how good they are right now, Hosmer is probably better and more accomplished. However, I am not wild about high school 1B, plus when you factor in cost, Hicks is just a better prospect to me. In order for Hosmer to be worth his cost, he has to hit 30 HR in the big leagues. Even if he turns out to be Mike Jacobs, that is not worth it. I would rather take a chance on a non 1B.

4) Kyle Skipworth
I really like Skipworth, and I think he is a top 10 pick. As I said in his Top Prospect, he has the size comparable to Joe Mauer and the sweet swing of John Olerude, but with more power. If it was a given he could stay at catcher, he would be a top 5 pick. However, he has calmed some of those concerns this Spring. He can hit enough to even play 1B down the road if need be.

4) Isaac Galloway
This is where the list drops off for me. He profiles as a corner OF and tops out at a 20/20 ceiling. His arm is good, but not good enough speed for CF. The word is that he has more now skills but not as much projection as Hicks.

Crow v. Matusz

Crow or Matusz, Matusz or Crow? That seems to be the question. Fortunately for comparison sake, the only similarity they really share is they are both studs.

I am not going to get into college numbers when comparing them, because most college numbers are useless. The fact that Matusz struck out 16 against San Fransisco really does no good in his future projection. Something I will bring up is the K/BB ratio because I feel it is important no matter what division or league a pitcher is in that they throw strikes and have dominating stuff; Matusz with a 71:15 ratio and Crow with a 67:11. But, Crow plays against better competition blah blah blah that it why I do not want to get into comparing college stats. They are both dominating the college ranks, enough said.

So here is what we got – Crow is a dominating RHP with two plus pitches (FB and Slider) while Matusz has 3 potential plus pitches. You might have seen that Matusz has 3 plus pitches already. I beg to differ. His FB sitting at 90-91 is not a plus pitch. There are some concerns with his velocity. If teams think Matusz sits at 90-91 as a pro, his draft stock will take a hit. Because he goes from possibly an Eric Bedard (92-94 MPH FB) to a young Jamie Moyer (not bad, but not an ace). There are no questions about Crows velo and his secondary pitches – they are both plus. Maybe the slider plus plus.

However, comparing deliveries, Matusz has the advantage a good bit on Crow. Crow SHOULD throw that hard with his effort delivery. It is not herky jerk per se, but its also not smooth. Matusz’s delivery actually reminds me of Jamie Moyers, nice and smooth – almost melancholy. Matusz is also 6’5. So, it will cause some teams to wonder if he will not actually gain velocity. Matusz doesn’t use a lot of arm speed – he also all legs and leverage (which is a good thing).

Projctablity:

I have mention before that I feel Crow’s best two pitches are better than Matusz’s best two. However, Matusz’s third pitch is better than Crow’s third pitch. Simply put, I think Crow is more dominating but Matusz is a safer bet because he already has 3 workable pitches.

Here is how I view them – Crow has a higher ceiling in that if he develops a change up or a 3^rd pitch we could be talking about his stuff being Prior-esque. Matusz on the other hand is the safest bet in the draft. He is going to be a major league pitcher baring an injury. Also, I think he floor is higher than most players. At the very least he is an innings eater 4^th starter for a long time.

Lastly, Crow is advised by Boras. Matusz is not. It is almost a given that Boras will demand a ML deal for Crow (bringing up the Prior comparison). So, if a team (the Rays) feels that Crow is the best talent in the draft, is he better by 3 or 4 million than Matusz and Beckham? Probably not.

Furthermore, Matusz is a LHP, so that is a plus. The more I think about it, the more I think Matusz will be the first pitcher taken.

Upcoming Schedule

I am going to do a few player comparisons for this upcoming draft. In alot of chats I have seen debates on "why this player and not this one". I am not going to solve the debate but I will present both players accurately and compare and contrast.

Justin Smoak was already compared to Brett Wallace in Smoak's In Depth.

Upcoming:

Top College Pitchers - Aaron Crow v. Brian Matusz

Top High School Pitchers - Tim Melville v. Gerrit Cole

Top 5's (my top 5 college pitchers, college position players, high school pitchers, and high school position players - based on talent)

Top Prospect - Gordon Beckham

Gordon Beckham, SS, University of Georgia
___________________

Performance:

He was a Freshman All- American while playing in all 70 games at SS - hit .280 with 12 HR
As a Sophomore, he hit 13 HR overall, while hitting .322 in SEC play
He followed that up with a league leading 9 HR in the Cape Cod League
Now, here we are in April with him being near the top of the Golden Spikes list as he has hit a silly .454 (that is BA, not slugging %) and 15 HR.

Size/appearance:

Beckham is not the biggest of players, UGA has him listed at 6'0, 180. However, he is muscular and ripped. Wiry strong I would say. He could play at 6'0, 200 pounds without losing speed and mobility.


Tools:

Despite the outstanding numbers and career, Beckham is not without flaws. Hitting, his swing is not picture peferct by any means. His bat is perpendicular with the ground (which makes his swing long, but gives him more bat speed). His high leg kick also gives him more power but leaves him a little off balance and he has a "funky" beginning to his swing.

Defensively, the word is he can stay at SS. He wouldn't be much better than average however. He moves laterally pretty well and has a good arm, but he dosent jump out at you.

He is a solid all around athlete who can run, but wont steal a ton of bases in he majors

Beckham has only walked 12 times in 100 Abs this year. He isnt a hacker but he goes up there swinging. For example: against Miss State. He swings at the first pitch and fouls it off, then lays off two good pitches to work the count 2-1. Then swings at a good slider away that he cant do much with (fouls it off). So, instead of being 3-1 and knowing he is gonna get a FB, he is now 2-2.

Projection:

Beckham is just an all around solid prospects - nothing is great, but nothing is below average either.
Beckam is going to have to realize he is not a power hitter and change his approach and add some conact ability to his game. As mentioned earlier, he is a bit of a free swinger. To his defense, he IS that UGA lineup. He is hitting third and his team is depending on him to be their main power source.
With that said, he can hit for power (20 - 25 HR). However, at what cost? Is he going to hit .250 while doing it?
While he is a free swinger, he has also only struck out 9 times this year. So, as he improves his appraoch, and shows a willingness to use all fields, he could hit .290 and drive in 20-25 HRs.

He is a little pull happy right now, he is going to have to accept some singles the other way.

Either way, he projects to be an offensive 2B or SS. Playing 2B could move him into the all star level.

Comparisons:

How about a less defensivley gifted Khalil Green?? I say Green's offense with Michael Youngs defense. I think this is very fair in that both those players were good college ball players. Green hit for tons of power at Clemson and just hit 27 HRs playing at Petco...I am not saying Beckham will do that, but physically they are very similar as well.

Draft:

As you can see from the projections, I do not have him getting out of the top 15. He is the best college middle INF in the draft.

Video:
Here is the MiLB draft scouting report http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2008/index.jsp?mc=beckham
Not alot of video on him out there - if you live in the South, CSS is scheduled to show alot of UGA baseball games this year.
Here is the schedule:

4/1 @ 7PM
4/20 @ 9 PM
5/7 @7 PM
5/9 @ 7 PM

Draft Projection - March 25

This 1st round projection is not based on strictly talent, but past tenancies of the teams, money, and needs. Pretty much just my opinion as of right now. Please feel free to comment.

1) Rays - Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri - The Rays already have ridiculous pitching but you can never have too much. Alvarez does not make sense because of Longoria...I think Tim Beckham is a possibility but they like Brignac alot.

2) Pirates - Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt - Good fit here in that they want a "now" player and they are getting the best all around bat in the draft.

3) Royals - Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego - Just feel Crow is more dominating. However, Matusz will be the surest bet from this draft I think. I think Royals could go Tim Beckham here. That scenario is discussed later.

4) Orioles - Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina - Much like the Pirates, the Orioles will be looking for a "now" guy that will not take 4 years to develop. It is not like they are selling themselves short, Smoak is a legit power threat.

5) Giants - Tim Beckham, SS, High School - The top all around tools guy slips to 5?? If the Rays don't pick him, I just see the other 3 teams taking a more polished player. Giants fans are crossing their fingers they don't take another pitcher.

6) Marlins - Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami - Taking a local boy can't hurt the Marlins. Their current system has a lack of position players with all around hitting skills. Alonso is also a safe bet to hit for average and get on base. Guys like Hosmer, Cole, and Melville will have too high of a price tag right here as well.

7) Reds - Tim Melville, RHP, High School - Best high school pitcher in the draft. Tall projectable frame. Not quite on the level of a Jarrod Parker as of right now.

8) White Sox - Aaron Hicks, CF, High School - Kenny Williams keeps saying he wants athletic position players (and then they took pitchers with their last 2 first rounders). However, if you want an athletic OF, Hicks is your guy.

9) Nationals - Kyle Skipworth, C, High School - Obviously, the Nats could go alot of directions here. However, hitting catchers like this do not come along every year. Offensively, he has more power than Joe Mauer, and can hit enough to play 1B if need be to move him. However, he has silenced some of the fielding questions so far this year.

10) Houston - Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky - This just seems like a typical Astros choice. Inexpensive, and not very flashy. I have read Friedrich's curve dosen't exactly warrant the comparisons to Hill and Zito. And his velo is average. The upside pick here would be Garret Cole or Eric Hosmer if they were not worried about money - but, they will be.

11) Rangers - Lance Lynn, RHP, Ole Miss - I think the Rangers are still wanting to improve their pitching even with their good young arms already in the system (Hurley, Feliz, Main, Beaven). Lynn brings to the table polish, and big game experience. Do not be surprised to see Gerrit Cole here as the Rangers aren't afraid to deal with Boras.

12) Athletics - Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia - Beckham has probably hit another HR as I type this. He and Lynn are shooting up the boards.

13) Cardinals - Harold Martinez, 3B, High School - Logical choice here really. Martinez could be a bargain if he lasts this long.

14) Twins - Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tualne - Lets face it, the Twins won't go upside with both of their first round picks. However, Hunt is a good pick any way you slice it.

15) Dodgers - Alex Meyer, RHP, High School - Would the Dodgers really take another HS pitcher in the first round? Why not? It has worked so far. Meyer is extremely projectable at 6'7 and there is no signability concerns.

16) Brewers - Buster Posey, C, Florida State - Brewers do not have a legit catcher on the big league team or in the minors. He can hit and stay at catcher.

17) Blue Jays - Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Fresno State - Blue Jays showed last year that they do not mind taking high school kids. However, Scheppers makes sense here as I do not think they will go over slot to sign someone.

18) Mets - Eric Hosmer, 1B, High School - Hosmer has as good of upside as anyone in the draft. Boras is his agent and the Mets are in dire need to upgrade their farm system and they have the money to take the best talent available. In this case, Hosmer.

19) Cubs - Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami - I will be honest, I don't know what the Cubs will do here (I am not sure they do either!) They are not usually big spenders (see Tyler Colvin) so a toolsy 2B makes sense here. I think the Twins might grab Weeks, in that case look for Brett Hunter.

20) Mariners - Brett Hunter, RHP, Pepperdine - Mariners proved last year that they are willing to make a different pick with Aumont. But, Hunter is a good fit for them in that they like to move their guys quickly and he is a quick mover.

21) Tigers - Issac Galloway, OF, High School - The Tigers traded away their toolsy OFs in Maybin and Gorkys Hernandez. They get one back with this pick.

22) Mets - Dennis Raben, OF, Miami - I do not think they will go over slot with both picks. I do not see them signing Hosmer AND Cole..that is a little too crazy. They may decide to go 1 hitter and 1 pitcher though. Sonny Gray is a possible arm.

23) Padres - Jacob Thompson, RHP, Virginia - Cheap, polished, and proven = Padres.

24) Phillies - Gerrit Cole, RHP, High School - Best velo in this years high school crop..maybe of the whole thing will drop due to signability. Phillies have the money and the need to improve their system.

25) Rockies - Brett Wallace, 1B, Arizona State - Great college player that won't cost a ton of money makes sense for the Rockies. Wallace is polished and could easily take over for Helton.

26) Diamondbacks - Sonny Gray, RHP, High School - The Diamondbacks have taken pitching with their last 2 first round picks - and I think they do so again.

27) Twins - Xavier Avery, OF, High School - I'm calling this surprise. Twins love their fast outfielders - however, this is not Ben Revere..Avery projects for more power.

28) Yankess - Cody Satterwhite, RHP, Ole Miss- I do not think the Yankees go crazy in the draft this year. I think they are going to want to free up as much money as possible to sign some combination of KROD, Texeira, and Sabathia.

29) Indians - Kyle Lobstein, LHP, High School - Indians love taking their college kids. But, there is not one here that fits.

30) Red Sox - Brett DeVall, LHP, High School - Best fastball among prep lefties

** Ok, the top four college players will all want ML deals - so, Tim Beckham could actually cost less. KC could take him at 3. If that happens Orioles take Matusz, SF takes Melville, FLA takes Smoak, and Alonso drops to maybe Houston. I do not see SF taking Smoak when they have Villalona.

** What if Texas take Gerrit Cole? Then Lynn slips down to the A's, Cardinals still take Martinez, but the Twins would grab Beckham causing Hunt to drop.

Top Prospect - Brett Wallace

Brett Wallace, 1B/3B, Arizona State
___________________

Brett Wallace can hit - fastballs, curveballs, changeups, oranges, grapefruit, pinatas...you get the idea.
So, the obvious question is: why don't most of the projection lists have him as a top 10 talent? I wondered the same thing - more specifically, why is there a feeling that Smoak, Hosmer, and Alonso are better 1B prospects.

Here are the findings:

• Some do view him as a top 10 talent: Keith Law says this: "for me, Wallace is a top 10 talent. Whether the teams drafting there see him as such is another question, but I wouldn't hesitate to take him very high. He's going to hit."
• Law gives this report: perhaps the best pure hitter in this year's draft. Wallace, a left-handed hitter, brings a great swing, a good eye and above-average power to the table. He keeps his weight back and whips the bat through the zone, squaring up balls everywhere in the zone, showing only a weakness for the high pitch. He shows plus raw power in BP, though in the game he's more apt to drive balls middle-out to the left-center gap.
• Something I feel Law leaves out here is the tremendous balance Wallace has in his swing...he uses those tree trunk legs as a great base to his swing.
  
• There is another knock on Wallace about his body. While I have not seen him in unerwear or modeling jeans, he is definatley not fat. His lower body is extremley muscular.
• There is a problem with his height: he is already 240 pounds at 6'1. That is fine, however, he has nowhere to go but out, which would decrease flexibility. So, he does not have alot of room to increase muscle...so that hurts his projection compared to Smoak and Hosmer.
  
• I asked Jim Callis this question in his EPSN chat:

Jonathan (GA): Jim, I have read/heard that Brett Wallace does not have the power potential that Smoak does...from the USA games and his collehe numbers, how are questions about his power justified? Is it becuase his body is essentially maxed out?

Jim Callis: Wallace is having a great year, batting .448 with seven homers in 18 games. But it's not all about the numbers, especially in college baseball, where the competition varies and they're using metal bats. Scouts believe Wallace has more of a line-drive swing than a true power stroke, and if he plays first base (like they expect he will), that's somewhat of an issue. That said, it's not like scouts don't like Wallace a lot. At worst, I think he's a sandwich-round pick in June, and that's at worst.

• The consenus seems to be that Wallace is more of a linedrive hitter who will hit for average..from the video I have seen, I would agree. However, his bat speed is above average, so it is not as if he cannot hit HR, it is more that he would need to add loft to his swing.
  

I am with Callis, he isn't going to be a top 10 pick. If he could stay at 3B his value would increase, so he is a 1B who could hit over for well over .300, but what is his power output?? With the embarrasment of riches at the 1B position this June, I think teams will go for pitching or other positions...knowing they can potentially still get Wallace or Dykstra in the supp. round.
However, call me crazy, but the Rockies may be in play here with the 25th pick. If not, he will be gone early in the supp. round.

Video here:
He ripped the Netherlands on July 28th - hits a TANK at the 2:28 mark.
http://mlb.mlb.com/usa_baseball/article.jsp?story=national_schedule
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2008/index.jsp?mc=wallace

Rising Prospect - Reese Havens

Reese Havens, SS, South Carolina
___________________

Havens, a Charleston SC product has gotten off to a blistering start for USC this season: .379 with 4 bombs and 24 RBI out of the leadoff spot for the Gamecocks through 15 games.

Great start? Yes. Surprising? No.

Background:
Havens was ranked 6th on Baseball America's top 50 freshman list. Then dropped to 20th on the top 50 sophomore list.

Out of high school, the Red Sox were ready to draft him as their first round pick, and reportedly offered him over $1.25 million and he declined. The Rockies took him in the 29th round and offered him over $1 million and he declined.

Great article on him and good friend Justin Smoak here:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/highschool/050623smoakhavens.html


Havens subsequently hit .259 with 4 homers his Freshman year and followed that up with .274 and 5 HR his Sophomore year (yeah yeah should have taken the $$$)


Howeva (in a Steven A. Smith voice) Havens is now building off his terrific finish in the Cape Cod league in 2007 where he worked with former UNC Head Coach Mike Roberts. With USC Head Coach Ray Tanner's permission, Roberts lowered Haven's hands among other things - Havens hit .314 over the final two months. Roberts said he never had seen someone improve so much in such a short time in all his 30 years.

So here we are: a good 2007 Cape Cod showing and blistering the ball to start off 2008.
Jim Callis had this to say:

	Joe from Jersey asks: Where do you expect Reese Havens to go in the draft? He has had two sub-par seasons at South Carolina, but has played pretty well in his two summers in the Cape League (especially this past summer). Also, do you expect him to have a monster 2008 for the GameCocks?
	Jim Callis: Funny you bring him up. There are a lot of Reese Havens arguments around, both in the BA offices and among teams. Basically, those who have seen him in the spring (area scouts, my BA brethren) have been less than impressed. Those who saw him make adjustments in the Cape last summer (mostly scouting directors and crosscheckers, whom I talked to while doing our Cape Top 30) are more impressed. The biggest thing working against him is that he can't play shortstop at the next level. I see him going in the second or third round as a third baseman. Someone may try to make him a catcher.

So, is Havens playing his way into the first round? No

If he hits .350 this year, and shows power - say 10 HR, I would not be surprised if he goes late supp. round/2nd round as a offense oriented second baseman.

If a team really thinks he can catch (he has not caught before that I know of) that would increase his value.

Right now, I am saying he slows down, but still has a great year and helps USC get to Omaha - I'll say the Red Sox redraft him with the 11th pick in the compensation round.

Upcoming Schedule

Rising Prospect - Reese Havens, SS, South Carolina

Top Prospect - Brett Wallace, 3B/1B, Arizona State

In Depth - Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia

Under Rated Prospect - Lance Lynn (updated March 15)

Lance Lynn, RHP, Ole Miss
___________________


Say it with me in a Donald Trump impression - "he's huuuuuge"
To the tune of 6'5 - 260 as listed on the Ole Miss web stite. I don't know that he is 6'5, but 260 does not surprise me.

I say Lynn is under rated based on where I see him on preseason draft lists:
Baseball America does not even project him going in the first round.
Mymlbdraft.com does not project him going in the first round.
MLBdraftsite.com has him going 44th.

You get the idea.
So, am I crazy for saying he will be a top 15 pick? I do not think so, and here is why:
He has two plus pitches: a FB 92-94 with plus down curve that is a true strike out pitch.
He commands his FB well. He controls his curve ball well, but his command is iffy. To me, it is more of a swing and miss out pitch than a pitch he can throw for a strike.
Here is the game I have seen on which I am basing my opinion:
http://mlb.mlb.com/usa_baseball/article.jsp?story=national_schedule
He pitched the July 8 game v. Japan

My impressions:

• He got alot of swing and misses with his FB against a team that is known for making contact. This indicates to me that he has good late movement on the pitch. His FB is "heavy" meaning is has a nice sinking action. He does not throw a sinker by any means.
  
• His curve ball is a true, major league strike out pitch. He does need to be able to throw it for strike though, which he did not do a great job of in this outing. He will not be able to rely on pros swinging at that pitch in the dirt consistently.
  
• He has very sound mechanics for his size. He does tend to plant hard and torque on his left leg, which spins him towards first base. Usually this indicates that he might fly open, lose velocity, and leave pitches up. However, I did not see this in this particular outing.
  
• He commands his fastball better than I thought he might. He worked it to both sides of the plate, and kept it low in the zone.
  
• Did not rely and overuse curveball, which impressed me. He seemed content to just throw strikes with the FB and get ahead.
  
• He is lacking a 3rd pitch. He bounced a changeup and that is the only time I saw him throw it. It drives me crazy that every SP that does not have 3 above average pitches rumored to be a relief pitcher. Could he be a closer? Yes, I can see that. But I can also see him being a durable inning eater and a #3 SP on a very good team:

Comparisons:
He reminds me of a cross between Aaron Harang and Sidney Ponson (don't worry, more towards the Aaron Harang side).
I am looking forward to seeing him pitch on TV and possibly in the College World Series this year.

He has gotten off to an outstanding start this year, 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA with a 5:1 K to walk ratio.
However, the wins have been v. Minnesota, Indiana State, and TCU. So, it will be interesting to see how he fares in SEC play.

Lynn dominated rival Miss. State March 14 to improve to 4-0. Striking out 7 in 6 innings while giving up 4 hits and 0 runs.

In 25 innings with team USA - he had 26 Ks and a .136 BAA to go with a 1.80 ERA

Like I said, I think Lynn will work his way into the top 15 - I would not be suprised to see the Rangers, A's, Cardinals, or Brewers grab him.

Top Prospect - Aaron Hicks

Aaron Hicks, OF/SP, Long Beach Cali
___________________
The only real 5 tool OF talent in the draft (Galloway has not hit for avg. or power really - Dennis Raben does not have the speed, and Jonathan Danks has not hit for power). Hicks is as safe as any high school pick can get - if he doesn't hit for power, he still can be a speedy CF running a 6.06 / 60. If hitting doesn't work out, then he can be moved to the mound where he can potentially close with a 94-96 FB and a plus breaking ball. PS. he is a switch hitter.

He also plays for a very good team - his high school team is cirrently ranked #1 by Baseball America and he has impressed in the show cases he has played in.

I think he is the one high schooler other than Beckham who can sneak in the top 5 because of the lack of top OF in this draft. SF could go crazy and grab him if they aren't wild about Smoak or Matusz – although I doubt that will happen.

I think the more likely destination for him will ultimately be the White Sox. Kenny Williams has said he wants more athleticism – and Hicks fits the bill.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2008/index.jsp?mc=hicks

Top Prospect - Eric Hosmer

Eric Hosmer, 1B, Plantation FLA
___________________
Hosmer has legit power - no doubt. He has a tremendous load (not hitch) where he lowers his hands allowing his a lighting quick bat a short path to the ball.

• I have heard Hosmer has a substantial "hitch". This is not correct, he has a load - which is different. Almost all power hitters have a load - Chipper Jones with a very obvious ones. A hitch occurs DURING the swing - not before. Cecil Fielder had a hitch. Hosmer lowering his hands is not a bad thing - although I think he will have to make an adjustment on good fastballs in.
  

MiLB.com scouting report has him with "average power right now". Let me assure you, there is nothing average about that power. At 6'4 210 he has plus power to all fields as you can see from the youtube video.

David Rawnsley, a cross checker is blown away by Hosmer - calling him one of the best high shcool bats he has seen in 20 years - article here http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/2007/columnists/davidrawnsley/weeklycolumn/hosmer_special_hitter.aspx

However to be drafted as a 1B out of high school, there has to be no doubt you can hit - and to me, Hosmer has not hit well enough in show cases (Aflac and Team USA) to justify being ranked higher than Skipworth and Hicks. Furthermore, his high school competition has not been outstanding. He did play in a Lagrange, GA tournament dropping a bomb off fellow first round talent Ethan Martin - Martin also struck him out earlier in the game.

Hosmer does have as high of an upside as anyone in the draft - and he will need to come close to reaching it to justify a top 10 pick.
With polished 1B Smoak and Alonso in the draft, and Boras as his adviser, I would be surprised to see him go in the top 10.

He has been compared to Casey Kotchman and Jason Giambi.

I see Hosmer dropping in the draft as teams have other solid 1B options for less money available this year. If Boras tries to get him a major league contract, I do not think anyone will sign him.
I think if he will sign for between 2-3 million, the National, Rangers, and Astros will all be in play.

He has committed to Arizona State.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=7TqsNf30Gdg
extremely impressive ^ he is fooled on the pitch, reaches, and still hits it out
http://youtube.com/watch?v=7TqsNf30Gdg
http://youtube.com/watch?v=eHvNi6z877I
http://youtube.com/watch?v=UpKu15bl44U&feature=related
oppo bomb

Top Prospect - Kyle Skipworth

Kyle Skipworth, C, Riverside California
___________________
I think Skipworth is a better HS position prospect than Aaron Hicks and Eric Hosmer due to the fact that he is a Catcher with plus power.
As with every catcher the question is - can he stick at Catcher?
Skipworth impressed Baseball America's Matt Blood and other scouts with his catching ability in early March.
Skipworth was clocked this year with a 1.91 release time to second base, which caused one scout to say "I wish I had that on video". He has as good of a chance to stay at catcher as any high school catcher (much better than Hank Conger).
Skipworth is big - 6'3 190 - with a level swing that reminds me on John Olerude. However, his power is obvious as he has no trouble lofting the ball as seen in his two videos...one video shows him pulling a massive bomb, and the other hitting an oppo bomb

Comparisons:
Cacthers that can hit is a short list and any that do are in their own company. Looking at the video, I think Skipworth could have a John Olerude type career with a little more power at 1b. I don't know that he is athletic enough to potentially move to the OF.

If teams think he can stay at Catcher, there is no way he lasts more than 10 picks. He could be THE elite hitting catcher if he is able to stick.

Minor League Baseball Scouting Report w. Video - http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2008/index.jsp?mc=skipworth
youtube -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbfQvcSxvoY

Justin Smoak - In Depth (updated March 17)

Smoak played high school ball along with Matt Weiters in Goose Creek, SC - about 5 miles from where I went to college.

I have seen Smoak play as a Senior in high school, Freshman in college, and Sophomore in college. I will be seeing him play in person when USC visits UGA later in the year.

Quick hits on Smoak:

1) He is far and away better defensively than Wallace, Dykstra, and Alonso (other top college 1B)

2) Smoak v. Wallace - Smoak more projectable

Smoak is 6'3 (not any taller) and about 210 pounds - as you can see from the youtube video (scroll down), he has plenty of room to fill out and gain another 30 pounds without becoming too big and losing flexibility.
Wallace on the other hand, is as big as he can possibly get. He is 6'1 and 240 pounds. He really cannot add any more power, while Smoak can.

3) Smoak has an incredibly balanced swing - with very good leverage. His swing is a little long, but he has quick wrists. He had trouble with changeups this past summer with Team USA.

4) He tends to dip out over the plate and want to pull pitches when he bats right handed.

5) Smoak struggled while playing for team USA this past summer - hitting .223 with 10 2B, 3 HR in 121 ABs. This may be a cause for concern because the question with any hitter is "can he hit with wood". Well, Smoak was the Cap Cod Player of the year going INTO his sophomore season - hitting .315 with 11 HR in the Cap and earning the leagues top player honor.

6) Most Scout see Smoak as a middle of the order, switch hitting bat that can produce 25-40 HR. While the power numbers are justifiable, Smoak does not figure to hit for much avg. (no more than .285). However, is OBP will be solid as he demonstrated the willingness to take walks and has averaged near a 1:1 BB to K ratio while at USC

7) It has been rumored that the SF Giants will want to grab Smoak with the 5th pick in the draft due to his polish and their dearth of young position players. Depending on how healthy Pedro Alvarez is, I think the Pirates may take Smoak #2.

Jim Callis had this to say:

As for the draft, teams picking at the top of the draft usually worry about taking the best player available (unless signability is a factor) and not so much about the strengths or weaknesses of the organization. However, Villalona's shift from third base has to decrease the Giants' chances of selecting another first baseman at No. 5. Though Villalona is still just 17 and a ways from the majors, it wouldn't make much sense to take a slugging first baseman who can't move to another position when San Francisco has so many other holes to fill.

Comparison:
He reminds me of Mark Teixeira, but with less contact ability. Both are very good first basemen, dominated the college ranks, switch hit, and are about the same size at the same age (Tex is now listed at 6'3, 220 - so Smoak will more than likely be a little bigger)

Video:http://youtube.com/watch?v=BzH1pvmqKG8
http://youtube.com/watch?v=dSawGSqkTp8
http://youtube.com/watch?v=r216GoJHVlE
(he is up second in the video)
http://mlb.mlb.com/usa_baseball/article.jsp?story=national_schedule
(has a huge double off the wall in the July 8 game v. Japan - 3:16:00 mark)

Top Prospect - Aaron Crow (Updated March 15)

Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri
_____________________
Opened eyes hitting 98 MPH in the Cap Cod League as he was named the player of the year. ERA at the Cape - 0.67

He has gotten off to a quick start in 2008, striking out 10 v. Californi, striking out 7 in 5 innings v. UCONN, and easily dismantling Indiana State giving up 2 hits over 7 innings while striking out 9.

March 14, Crow dominated Toledo, throwing a complete game shutout, striking out 15 while allowing 7 hits and no BBs.

Stuff wise - he has a devastating FB/Slider combo. His FB is mid 90s with good life and his slider gets up to 87 and can be unhittable. He also shows a promising changeup. While it is not a plus pitch like the other two, he can show it, and it could develop in a third plus pitch. There is no worry that he will only be a "two pitch" pitcher.

• Crow has a tremendous push off - and his shoulders are very parrellel to the ground as he begins his release. Left arm is pointed directly at target.

• He tends to slump his shoulders and upper body during his push off, which could lead to unbalance and some inconsistency.

• His motion has substantial effort to it

Comparison:
Well, there are plenty of mid 90's RHP out there with good sliders. I dare say a toned down Mark Prior? His FB isn't quit as explosive as Priors, and his slider dosen't have quit the same shape and sharp break.

I think he makes sense for the Royals at #3. They have plenty of depth at 3B and 1B - so Smoak and Alvarez do not make a lot of sense. Unless Skipworth and Hicks really play well, I do not see them taking a hitter because I think the Rays will take Beckham. If the Royals do not grab him, I think the Orioles will jump all over him.

Jim Callis mentioned in a chat that he thinks Crow will be the first player to the mjaors from this draft - and think the Rays could pop him #1.

Jonathan (GA): RE: Orioles #1 Is that because Crow will be gone? I would put a friendly wager that Crow will be the first pitcher taken - I like his 2 plus pitches more than Matuszs two best pitches. And Crow is more dominating

Jim Callis: (2:56 PM ET ) Yes. Right now, my best guess is that Crow would go No. 1 to the Rays.


video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HT8DdNI1_UI
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIKuFfPqIxI
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2008/index.jsp?mc=crow