Under Rated Prospect - Lance Lynn (updated March 15)

Lance Lynn, RHP, Ole Miss
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Say it with me in a Donald Trump impression - "he's huuuuuge"
To the tune of 6'5 - 260 as listed on the Ole Miss web stite. I don't know that he is 6'5, but 260 does not surprise me.

I say Lynn is under rated based on where I see him on preseason draft lists:
Baseball America does not even project him going in the first round.
Mymlbdraft.com does not project him going in the first round.
MLBdraftsite.com has him going 44th.

You get the idea.
So, am I crazy for saying he will be a top 15 pick? I do not think so, and here is why:
He has two plus pitches: a FB 92-94 with plus down curve that is a true strike out pitch.
He commands his FB well. He controls his curve ball well, but his command is iffy. To me, it is more of a swing and miss out pitch than a pitch he can throw for a strike.
Here is the game I have seen on which I am basing my opinion:
http://mlb.mlb.com/usa_baseball/article.jsp?story=national_schedule
He pitched the July 8 game v. Japan

My impressions:

• He got alot of swing and misses with his FB against a team that is known for making contact. This indicates to me that he has good late movement on the pitch. His FB is "heavy" meaning is has a nice sinking action. He does not throw a sinker by any means.
  
• His curve ball is a true, major league strike out pitch. He does need to be able to throw it for strike though, which he did not do a great job of in this outing. He will not be able to rely on pros swinging at that pitch in the dirt consistently.
  
• He has very sound mechanics for his size. He does tend to plant hard and torque on his left leg, which spins him towards first base. Usually this indicates that he might fly open, lose velocity, and leave pitches up. However, I did not see this in this particular outing.
  
• He commands his fastball better than I thought he might. He worked it to both sides of the plate, and kept it low in the zone.
  
• Did not rely and overuse curveball, which impressed me. He seemed content to just throw strikes with the FB and get ahead.
  
• He is lacking a 3rd pitch. He bounced a changeup and that is the only time I saw him throw it. It drives me crazy that every SP that does not have 3 above average pitches rumored to be a relief pitcher. Could he be a closer? Yes, I can see that. But I can also see him being a durable inning eater and a #3 SP on a very good team:

Comparisons:
He reminds me of a cross between Aaron Harang and Sidney Ponson (don't worry, more towards the Aaron Harang side).
I am looking forward to seeing him pitch on TV and possibly in the College World Series this year.

He has gotten off to an outstanding start this year, 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA with a 5:1 K to walk ratio.
However, the wins have been v. Minnesota, Indiana State, and TCU. So, it will be interesting to see how he fares in SEC play.

Lynn dominated rival Miss. State March 14 to improve to 4-0. Striking out 7 in 6 innings while giving up 4 hits and 0 runs.

In 25 innings with team USA - he had 26 Ks and a .136 BAA to go with a 1.80 ERA

Like I said, I think Lynn will work his way into the top 15 - I would not be suprised to see the Rangers, A's, Cardinals, or Brewers grab him.