Justin Smoak - In Depth (updated March 17)

Smoak played high school ball along with Matt Weiters in Goose Creek, SC - about 5 miles from where I went to college.

I have seen Smoak play as a Senior in high school, Freshman in college, and Sophomore in college. I will be seeing him play in person when USC visits UGA later in the year.

Quick hits on Smoak:

1) He is far and away better defensively than Wallace, Dykstra, and Alonso (other top college 1B)

2) Smoak v. Wallace - Smoak more projectable

Smoak is 6'3 (not any taller) and about 210 pounds - as you can see from the youtube video (scroll down), he has plenty of room to fill out and gain another 30 pounds without becoming too big and losing flexibility.
Wallace on the other hand, is as big as he can possibly get. He is 6'1 and 240 pounds. He really cannot add any more power, while Smoak can.

3) Smoak has an incredibly balanced swing - with very good leverage. His swing is a little long, but he has quick wrists. He had trouble with changeups this past summer with Team USA.

4) He tends to dip out over the plate and want to pull pitches when he bats right handed.

5) Smoak struggled while playing for team USA this past summer - hitting .223 with 10 2B, 3 HR in 121 ABs. This may be a cause for concern because the question with any hitter is "can he hit with wood". Well, Smoak was the Cap Cod Player of the year going INTO his sophomore season - hitting .315 with 11 HR in the Cap and earning the leagues top player honor.

6) Most Scout see Smoak as a middle of the order, switch hitting bat that can produce 25-40 HR. While the power numbers are justifiable, Smoak does not figure to hit for much avg. (no more than .285). However, is OBP will be solid as he demonstrated the willingness to take walks and has averaged near a 1:1 BB to K ratio while at USC

7) It has been rumored that the SF Giants will want to grab Smoak with the 5th pick in the draft due to his polish and their dearth of young position players. Depending on how healthy Pedro Alvarez is, I think the Pirates may take Smoak #2.

Jim Callis had this to say:

As for the draft, teams picking at the top of the draft usually worry about taking the best player available (unless signability is a factor) and not so much about the strengths or weaknesses of the organization. However, Villalona's shift from third base has to decrease the Giants' chances of selecting another first baseman at No. 5. Though Villalona is still just 17 and a ways from the majors, it wouldn't make much sense to take a slugging first baseman who can't move to another position when San Francisco has so many other holes to fill.

Comparison:
He reminds me of Mark Teixeira, but with less contact ability. Both are very good first basemen, dominated the college ranks, switch hit, and are about the same size at the same age (Tex is now listed at 6'3, 220 - so Smoak will more than likely be a little bigger)

Video:http://youtube.com/watch?v=BzH1pvmqKG8
http://youtube.com/watch?v=dSawGSqkTp8
http://youtube.com/watch?v=r216GoJHVlE
(he is up second in the video)
http://mlb.mlb.com/usa_baseball/article.jsp?story=national_schedule
(has a huge double off the wall in the July 8 game v. Japan - 3:16:00 mark)