Draft Projection - March 25

This 1st round projection is not based on strictly talent, but past tenancies of the teams, money, and needs. Pretty much just my opinion as of right now. Please feel free to comment.

1) Rays - Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri - The Rays already have ridiculous pitching but you can never have too much. Alvarez does not make sense because of Longoria...I think Tim Beckham is a possibility but they like Brignac alot.

2) Pirates - Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt - Good fit here in that they want a "now" player and they are getting the best all around bat in the draft.

3) Royals - Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego - Just feel Crow is more dominating. However, Matusz will be the surest bet from this draft I think. I think Royals could go Tim Beckham here. That scenario is discussed later.

4) Orioles - Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina - Much like the Pirates, the Orioles will be looking for a "now" guy that will not take 4 years to develop. It is not like they are selling themselves short, Smoak is a legit power threat.

5) Giants - Tim Beckham, SS, High School - The top all around tools guy slips to 5?? If the Rays don't pick him, I just see the other 3 teams taking a more polished player. Giants fans are crossing their fingers they don't take another pitcher.

6) Marlins - Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami - Taking a local boy can't hurt the Marlins. Their current system has a lack of position players with all around hitting skills. Alonso is also a safe bet to hit for average and get on base. Guys like Hosmer, Cole, and Melville will have too high of a price tag right here as well.

7) Reds - Tim Melville, RHP, High School - Best high school pitcher in the draft. Tall projectable frame. Not quite on the level of a Jarrod Parker as of right now.

8) White Sox - Aaron Hicks, CF, High School - Kenny Williams keeps saying he wants athletic position players (and then they took pitchers with their last 2 first rounders). However, if you want an athletic OF, Hicks is your guy.

9) Nationals - Kyle Skipworth, C, High School - Obviously, the Nats could go alot of directions here. However, hitting catchers like this do not come along every year. Offensively, he has more power than Joe Mauer, and can hit enough to play 1B if need be to move him. However, he has silenced some of the fielding questions so far this year.

10) Houston - Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky - This just seems like a typical Astros choice. Inexpensive, and not very flashy. I have read Friedrich's curve dosen't exactly warrant the comparisons to Hill and Zito. And his velo is average. The upside pick here would be Garret Cole or Eric Hosmer if they were not worried about money - but, they will be.

11) Rangers - Lance Lynn, RHP, Ole Miss - I think the Rangers are still wanting to improve their pitching even with their good young arms already in the system (Hurley, Feliz, Main, Beaven). Lynn brings to the table polish, and big game experience. Do not be surprised to see Gerrit Cole here as the Rangers aren't afraid to deal with Boras.

12) Athletics - Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia - Beckham has probably hit another HR as I type this. He and Lynn are shooting up the boards.

13) Cardinals - Harold Martinez, 3B, High School - Logical choice here really. Martinez could be a bargain if he lasts this long.

14) Twins - Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tualne - Lets face it, the Twins won't go upside with both of their first round picks. However, Hunt is a good pick any way you slice it.

15) Dodgers - Alex Meyer, RHP, High School - Would the Dodgers really take another HS pitcher in the first round? Why not? It has worked so far. Meyer is extremely projectable at 6'7 and there is no signability concerns.

16) Brewers - Buster Posey, C, Florida State - Brewers do not have a legit catcher on the big league team or in the minors. He can hit and stay at catcher.

17) Blue Jays - Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Fresno State - Blue Jays showed last year that they do not mind taking high school kids. However, Scheppers makes sense here as I do not think they will go over slot to sign someone.

18) Mets - Eric Hosmer, 1B, High School - Hosmer has as good of upside as anyone in the draft. Boras is his agent and the Mets are in dire need to upgrade their farm system and they have the money to take the best talent available. In this case, Hosmer.

19) Cubs - Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami - I will be honest, I don't know what the Cubs will do here (I am not sure they do either!) They are not usually big spenders (see Tyler Colvin) so a toolsy 2B makes sense here. I think the Twins might grab Weeks, in that case look for Brett Hunter.

20) Mariners - Brett Hunter, RHP, Pepperdine - Mariners proved last year that they are willing to make a different pick with Aumont. But, Hunter is a good fit for them in that they like to move their guys quickly and he is a quick mover.

21) Tigers - Issac Galloway, OF, High School - The Tigers traded away their toolsy OFs in Maybin and Gorkys Hernandez. They get one back with this pick.

22) Mets - Dennis Raben, OF, Miami - I do not think they will go over slot with both picks. I do not see them signing Hosmer AND Cole..that is a little too crazy. They may decide to go 1 hitter and 1 pitcher though. Sonny Gray is a possible arm.

23) Padres - Jacob Thompson, RHP, Virginia - Cheap, polished, and proven = Padres.

24) Phillies - Gerrit Cole, RHP, High School - Best velo in this years high school crop..maybe of the whole thing will drop due to signability. Phillies have the money and the need to improve their system.

25) Rockies - Brett Wallace, 1B, Arizona State - Great college player that won't cost a ton of money makes sense for the Rockies. Wallace is polished and could easily take over for Helton.

26) Diamondbacks - Sonny Gray, RHP, High School - The Diamondbacks have taken pitching with their last 2 first round picks - and I think they do so again.

27) Twins - Xavier Avery, OF, High School - I'm calling this surprise. Twins love their fast outfielders - however, this is not Ben Revere..Avery projects for more power.

28) Yankess - Cody Satterwhite, RHP, Ole Miss- I do not think the Yankees go crazy in the draft this year. I think they are going to want to free up as much money as possible to sign some combination of KROD, Texeira, and Sabathia.

29) Indians - Kyle Lobstein, LHP, High School - Indians love taking their college kids. But, there is not one here that fits.

30) Red Sox - Brett DeVall, LHP, High School - Best fastball among prep lefties

** Ok, the top four college players will all want ML deals - so, Tim Beckham could actually cost less. KC could take him at 3. If that happens Orioles take Matusz, SF takes Melville, FLA takes Smoak, and Alonso drops to maybe Houston. I do not see SF taking Smoak when they have Villalona.

** What if Texas take Gerrit Cole? Then Lynn slips down to the A's, Cardinals still take Martinez, but the Twins would grab Beckham causing Hunt to drop.

Top Prospect - Brett Wallace

Brett Wallace, 1B/3B, Arizona State
___________________

Brett Wallace can hit - fastballs, curveballs, changeups, oranges, grapefruit, pinatas...you get the idea.
So, the obvious question is: why don't most of the projection lists have him as a top 10 talent? I wondered the same thing - more specifically, why is there a feeling that Smoak, Hosmer, and Alonso are better 1B prospects.

Here are the findings:

• Some do view him as a top 10 talent: Keith Law says this: "for me, Wallace is a top 10 talent. Whether the teams drafting there see him as such is another question, but I wouldn't hesitate to take him very high. He's going to hit."
• Law gives this report: perhaps the best pure hitter in this year's draft. Wallace, a left-handed hitter, brings a great swing, a good eye and above-average power to the table. He keeps his weight back and whips the bat through the zone, squaring up balls everywhere in the zone, showing only a weakness for the high pitch. He shows plus raw power in BP, though in the game he's more apt to drive balls middle-out to the left-center gap.
• Something I feel Law leaves out here is the tremendous balance Wallace has in his swing...he uses those tree trunk legs as a great base to his swing.
  
• There is another knock on Wallace about his body. While I have not seen him in unerwear or modeling jeans, he is definatley not fat. His lower body is extremley muscular.
• There is a problem with his height: he is already 240 pounds at 6'1. That is fine, however, he has nowhere to go but out, which would decrease flexibility. So, he does not have alot of room to increase muscle...so that hurts his projection compared to Smoak and Hosmer.
  
• I asked Jim Callis this question in his EPSN chat:

Jonathan (GA): Jim, I have read/heard that Brett Wallace does not have the power potential that Smoak does...from the USA games and his collehe numbers, how are questions about his power justified? Is it becuase his body is essentially maxed out?

Jim Callis: Wallace is having a great year, batting .448 with seven homers in 18 games. But it's not all about the numbers, especially in college baseball, where the competition varies and they're using metal bats. Scouts believe Wallace has more of a line-drive swing than a true power stroke, and if he plays first base (like they expect he will), that's somewhat of an issue. That said, it's not like scouts don't like Wallace a lot. At worst, I think he's a sandwich-round pick in June, and that's at worst.

• The consenus seems to be that Wallace is more of a linedrive hitter who will hit for average..from the video I have seen, I would agree. However, his bat speed is above average, so it is not as if he cannot hit HR, it is more that he would need to add loft to his swing.
  

I am with Callis, he isn't going to be a top 10 pick. If he could stay at 3B his value would increase, so he is a 1B who could hit over for well over .300, but what is his power output?? With the embarrasment of riches at the 1B position this June, I think teams will go for pitching or other positions...knowing they can potentially still get Wallace or Dykstra in the supp. round.
However, call me crazy, but the Rockies may be in play here with the 25th pick. If not, he will be gone early in the supp. round.

Video here:
He ripped the Netherlands on July 28th - hits a TANK at the 2:28 mark.
http://mlb.mlb.com/usa_baseball/article.jsp?story=national_schedule
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2008/index.jsp?mc=wallace

Rising Prospect - Reese Havens

Reese Havens, SS, South Carolina
___________________

Havens, a Charleston SC product has gotten off to a blistering start for USC this season: .379 with 4 bombs and 24 RBI out of the leadoff spot for the Gamecocks through 15 games.

Great start? Yes. Surprising? No.

Background:
Havens was ranked 6th on Baseball America's top 50 freshman list. Then dropped to 20th on the top 50 sophomore list.

Out of high school, the Red Sox were ready to draft him as their first round pick, and reportedly offered him over $1.25 million and he declined. The Rockies took him in the 29th round and offered him over $1 million and he declined.

Great article on him and good friend Justin Smoak here:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/highschool/050623smoakhavens.html


Havens subsequently hit .259 with 4 homers his Freshman year and followed that up with .274 and 5 HR his Sophomore year (yeah yeah should have taken the $$$)


Howeva (in a Steven A. Smith voice) Havens is now building off his terrific finish in the Cape Cod league in 2007 where he worked with former UNC Head Coach Mike Roberts. With USC Head Coach Ray Tanner's permission, Roberts lowered Haven's hands among other things - Havens hit .314 over the final two months. Roberts said he never had seen someone improve so much in such a short time in all his 30 years.

So here we are: a good 2007 Cape Cod showing and blistering the ball to start off 2008.
Jim Callis had this to say:

	Joe from Jersey asks: Where do you expect Reese Havens to go in the draft? He has had two sub-par seasons at South Carolina, but has played pretty well in his two summers in the Cape League (especially this past summer). Also, do you expect him to have a monster 2008 for the GameCocks?
	Jim Callis: Funny you bring him up. There are a lot of Reese Havens arguments around, both in the BA offices and among teams. Basically, those who have seen him in the spring (area scouts, my BA brethren) have been less than impressed. Those who saw him make adjustments in the Cape last summer (mostly scouting directors and crosscheckers, whom I talked to while doing our Cape Top 30) are more impressed. The biggest thing working against him is that he can't play shortstop at the next level. I see him going in the second or third round as a third baseman. Someone may try to make him a catcher.

So, is Havens playing his way into the first round? No

If he hits .350 this year, and shows power - say 10 HR, I would not be surprised if he goes late supp. round/2nd round as a offense oriented second baseman.

If a team really thinks he can catch (he has not caught before that I know of) that would increase his value.

Right now, I am saying he slows down, but still has a great year and helps USC get to Omaha - I'll say the Red Sox redraft him with the 11th pick in the compensation round.

Upcoming Schedule

Rising Prospect - Reese Havens, SS, South Carolina

Top Prospect - Brett Wallace, 3B/1B, Arizona State

In Depth - Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia

Under Rated Prospect - Lance Lynn (updated March 15)

Lance Lynn, RHP, Ole Miss
___________________


Say it with me in a Donald Trump impression - "he's huuuuuge"
To the tune of 6'5 - 260 as listed on the Ole Miss web stite. I don't know that he is 6'5, but 260 does not surprise me.

I say Lynn is under rated based on where I see him on preseason draft lists:
Baseball America does not even project him going in the first round.
Mymlbdraft.com does not project him going in the first round.
MLBdraftsite.com has him going 44th.

You get the idea.
So, am I crazy for saying he will be a top 15 pick? I do not think so, and here is why:
He has two plus pitches: a FB 92-94 with plus down curve that is a true strike out pitch.
He commands his FB well. He controls his curve ball well, but his command is iffy. To me, it is more of a swing and miss out pitch than a pitch he can throw for a strike.
Here is the game I have seen on which I am basing my opinion:
http://mlb.mlb.com/usa_baseball/article.jsp?story=national_schedule
He pitched the July 8 game v. Japan

My impressions:

• He got alot of swing and misses with his FB against a team that is known for making contact. This indicates to me that he has good late movement on the pitch. His FB is "heavy" meaning is has a nice sinking action. He does not throw a sinker by any means.
  
• His curve ball is a true, major league strike out pitch. He does need to be able to throw it for strike though, which he did not do a great job of in this outing. He will not be able to rely on pros swinging at that pitch in the dirt consistently.
  
• He has very sound mechanics for his size. He does tend to plant hard and torque on his left leg, which spins him towards first base. Usually this indicates that he might fly open, lose velocity, and leave pitches up. However, I did not see this in this particular outing.
  
• He commands his fastball better than I thought he might. He worked it to both sides of the plate, and kept it low in the zone.
  
• Did not rely and overuse curveball, which impressed me. He seemed content to just throw strikes with the FB and get ahead.
  
• He is lacking a 3rd pitch. He bounced a changeup and that is the only time I saw him throw it. It drives me crazy that every SP that does not have 3 above average pitches rumored to be a relief pitcher. Could he be a closer? Yes, I can see that. But I can also see him being a durable inning eater and a #3 SP on a very good team:

Comparisons:
He reminds me of a cross between Aaron Harang and Sidney Ponson (don't worry, more towards the Aaron Harang side).
I am looking forward to seeing him pitch on TV and possibly in the College World Series this year.

He has gotten off to an outstanding start this year, 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA with a 5:1 K to walk ratio.
However, the wins have been v. Minnesota, Indiana State, and TCU. So, it will be interesting to see how he fares in SEC play.

Lynn dominated rival Miss. State March 14 to improve to 4-0. Striking out 7 in 6 innings while giving up 4 hits and 0 runs.

In 25 innings with team USA - he had 26 Ks and a .136 BAA to go with a 1.80 ERA

Like I said, I think Lynn will work his way into the top 15 - I would not be suprised to see the Rangers, A's, Cardinals, or Brewers grab him.

Top Prospect - Aaron Hicks

Aaron Hicks, OF/SP, Long Beach Cali
___________________
The only real 5 tool OF talent in the draft (Galloway has not hit for avg. or power really - Dennis Raben does not have the speed, and Jonathan Danks has not hit for power). Hicks is as safe as any high school pick can get - if he doesn't hit for power, he still can be a speedy CF running a 6.06 / 60. If hitting doesn't work out, then he can be moved to the mound where he can potentially close with a 94-96 FB and a plus breaking ball. PS. he is a switch hitter.

He also plays for a very good team - his high school team is cirrently ranked #1 by Baseball America and he has impressed in the show cases he has played in.

I think he is the one high schooler other than Beckham who can sneak in the top 5 because of the lack of top OF in this draft. SF could go crazy and grab him if they aren't wild about Smoak or Matusz – although I doubt that will happen.

I think the more likely destination for him will ultimately be the White Sox. Kenny Williams has said he wants more athleticism – and Hicks fits the bill.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2008/index.jsp?mc=hicks

Top Prospect - Eric Hosmer

Eric Hosmer, 1B, Plantation FLA
___________________
Hosmer has legit power - no doubt. He has a tremendous load (not hitch) where he lowers his hands allowing his a lighting quick bat a short path to the ball.

• I have heard Hosmer has a substantial "hitch". This is not correct, he has a load - which is different. Almost all power hitters have a load - Chipper Jones with a very obvious ones. A hitch occurs DURING the swing - not before. Cecil Fielder had a hitch. Hosmer lowering his hands is not a bad thing - although I think he will have to make an adjustment on good fastballs in.
  

MiLB.com scouting report has him with "average power right now". Let me assure you, there is nothing average about that power. At 6'4 210 he has plus power to all fields as you can see from the youtube video.

David Rawnsley, a cross checker is blown away by Hosmer - calling him one of the best high shcool bats he has seen in 20 years - article here http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/2007/columnists/davidrawnsley/weeklycolumn/hosmer_special_hitter.aspx

However to be drafted as a 1B out of high school, there has to be no doubt you can hit - and to me, Hosmer has not hit well enough in show cases (Aflac and Team USA) to justify being ranked higher than Skipworth and Hicks. Furthermore, his high school competition has not been outstanding. He did play in a Lagrange, GA tournament dropping a bomb off fellow first round talent Ethan Martin - Martin also struck him out earlier in the game.

Hosmer does have as high of an upside as anyone in the draft - and he will need to come close to reaching it to justify a top 10 pick.
With polished 1B Smoak and Alonso in the draft, and Boras as his adviser, I would be surprised to see him go in the top 10.

He has been compared to Casey Kotchman and Jason Giambi.

I see Hosmer dropping in the draft as teams have other solid 1B options for less money available this year. If Boras tries to get him a major league contract, I do not think anyone will sign him.
I think if he will sign for between 2-3 million, the National, Rangers, and Astros will all be in play.

He has committed to Arizona State.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=7TqsNf30Gdg
extremely impressive ^ he is fooled on the pitch, reaches, and still hits it out
http://youtube.com/watch?v=7TqsNf30Gdg
http://youtube.com/watch?v=eHvNi6z877I
http://youtube.com/watch?v=UpKu15bl44U&feature=related
oppo bomb

Top Prospect - Kyle Skipworth

Kyle Skipworth, C, Riverside California
___________________
I think Skipworth is a better HS position prospect than Aaron Hicks and Eric Hosmer due to the fact that he is a Catcher with plus power.
As with every catcher the question is - can he stick at Catcher?
Skipworth impressed Baseball America's Matt Blood and other scouts with his catching ability in early March.
Skipworth was clocked this year with a 1.91 release time to second base, which caused one scout to say "I wish I had that on video". He has as good of a chance to stay at catcher as any high school catcher (much better than Hank Conger).
Skipworth is big - 6'3 190 - with a level swing that reminds me on John Olerude. However, his power is obvious as he has no trouble lofting the ball as seen in his two videos...one video shows him pulling a massive bomb, and the other hitting an oppo bomb

Comparisons:
Cacthers that can hit is a short list and any that do are in their own company. Looking at the video, I think Skipworth could have a John Olerude type career with a little more power at 1b. I don't know that he is athletic enough to potentially move to the OF.

If teams think he can stay at Catcher, there is no way he lasts more than 10 picks. He could be THE elite hitting catcher if he is able to stick.

Minor League Baseball Scouting Report w. Video - http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2008/index.jsp?mc=skipworth
youtube -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbfQvcSxvoY

Justin Smoak - In Depth (updated March 17)

Smoak played high school ball along with Matt Weiters in Goose Creek, SC - about 5 miles from where I went to college.

I have seen Smoak play as a Senior in high school, Freshman in college, and Sophomore in college. I will be seeing him play in person when USC visits UGA later in the year.

Quick hits on Smoak:

1) He is far and away better defensively than Wallace, Dykstra, and Alonso (other top college 1B)

2) Smoak v. Wallace - Smoak more projectable

Smoak is 6'3 (not any taller) and about 210 pounds - as you can see from the youtube video (scroll down), he has plenty of room to fill out and gain another 30 pounds without becoming too big and losing flexibility.
Wallace on the other hand, is as big as he can possibly get. He is 6'1 and 240 pounds. He really cannot add any more power, while Smoak can.

3) Smoak has an incredibly balanced swing - with very good leverage. His swing is a little long, but he has quick wrists. He had trouble with changeups this past summer with Team USA.

4) He tends to dip out over the plate and want to pull pitches when he bats right handed.

5) Smoak struggled while playing for team USA this past summer - hitting .223 with 10 2B, 3 HR in 121 ABs. This may be a cause for concern because the question with any hitter is "can he hit with wood". Well, Smoak was the Cap Cod Player of the year going INTO his sophomore season - hitting .315 with 11 HR in the Cap and earning the leagues top player honor.

6) Most Scout see Smoak as a middle of the order, switch hitting bat that can produce 25-40 HR. While the power numbers are justifiable, Smoak does not figure to hit for much avg. (no more than .285). However, is OBP will be solid as he demonstrated the willingness to take walks and has averaged near a 1:1 BB to K ratio while at USC

7) It has been rumored that the SF Giants will want to grab Smoak with the 5th pick in the draft due to his polish and their dearth of young position players. Depending on how healthy Pedro Alvarez is, I think the Pirates may take Smoak #2.

Jim Callis had this to say:

As for the draft, teams picking at the top of the draft usually worry about taking the best player available (unless signability is a factor) and not so much about the strengths or weaknesses of the organization. However, Villalona's shift from third base has to decrease the Giants' chances of selecting another first baseman at No. 5. Though Villalona is still just 17 and a ways from the majors, it wouldn't make much sense to take a slugging first baseman who can't move to another position when San Francisco has so many other holes to fill.

Comparison:
He reminds me of Mark Teixeira, but with less contact ability. Both are very good first basemen, dominated the college ranks, switch hit, and are about the same size at the same age (Tex is now listed at 6'3, 220 - so Smoak will more than likely be a little bigger)

Video:http://youtube.com/watch?v=BzH1pvmqKG8
http://youtube.com/watch?v=dSawGSqkTp8
http://youtube.com/watch?v=r216GoJHVlE
(he is up second in the video)
http://mlb.mlb.com/usa_baseball/article.jsp?story=national_schedule
(has a huge double off the wall in the July 8 game v. Japan - 3:16:00 mark)

Top Prospect - Aaron Crow (Updated March 15)

Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri
_____________________
Opened eyes hitting 98 MPH in the Cap Cod League as he was named the player of the year. ERA at the Cape - 0.67

He has gotten off to a quick start in 2008, striking out 10 v. Californi, striking out 7 in 5 innings v. UCONN, and easily dismantling Indiana State giving up 2 hits over 7 innings while striking out 9.

March 14, Crow dominated Toledo, throwing a complete game shutout, striking out 15 while allowing 7 hits and no BBs.

Stuff wise - he has a devastating FB/Slider combo. His FB is mid 90s with good life and his slider gets up to 87 and can be unhittable. He also shows a promising changeup. While it is not a plus pitch like the other two, he can show it, and it could develop in a third plus pitch. There is no worry that he will only be a "two pitch" pitcher.

• Crow has a tremendous push off - and his shoulders are very parrellel to the ground as he begins his release. Left arm is pointed directly at target.

• He tends to slump his shoulders and upper body during his push off, which could lead to unbalance and some inconsistency.

• His motion has substantial effort to it

Comparison:
Well, there are plenty of mid 90's RHP out there with good sliders. I dare say a toned down Mark Prior? His FB isn't quit as explosive as Priors, and his slider dosen't have quit the same shape and sharp break.

I think he makes sense for the Royals at #3. They have plenty of depth at 3B and 1B - so Smoak and Alvarez do not make a lot of sense. Unless Skipworth and Hicks really play well, I do not see them taking a hitter because I think the Rays will take Beckham. If the Royals do not grab him, I think the Orioles will jump all over him.

Jim Callis mentioned in a chat that he thinks Crow will be the first player to the mjaors from this draft - and think the Rays could pop him #1.

Jonathan (GA): RE: Orioles #1 Is that because Crow will be gone? I would put a friendly wager that Crow will be the first pitcher taken - I like his 2 plus pitches more than Matuszs two best pitches. And Crow is more dominating

Jim Callis: (2:56 PM ET ) Yes. Right now, my best guess is that Crow would go No. 1 to the Rays.


video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HT8DdNI1_UI
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIKuFfPqIxI
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2008/index.jsp?mc=crow