I am going to do a few player comparisons for this upcoming draft. In alot of chats I have seen debates on "why this player and not this one". I am not going to solve the debate but I will present both players accurately and compare and contrast.
Justin Smoak was already compared to Brett Wallace in Smoak's In Depth.
Upcoming:
Top College Pitchers - Aaron Crow v. Brian Matusz
Top High School Pitchers - Tim Melville v. Gerrit Cole
Top 5's (my top 5 college pitchers, college position players, high school pitchers, and high school position players - based on talent)
Saturday, April 5, 2008
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
Top Prospect - Gordon Beckham
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Performance:
He was a Freshman All- American while playing in all 70 games at SS - hit .280 with 12 HR
As a Sophomore, he hit 13 HR overall, while hitting .322 in SEC play
He followed that up with a league leading 9 HR in the Cape Cod League
Now, here we are in April with him being near the top of the Golden Spikes list as he has hit a silly .454 (that is BA, not slugging %) and 15 HR.
Size/appearance:
Beckham is not the biggest of players, UGA has him listed at 6'0, 180. However, he is muscular and ripped. Wiry strong I would say. He could play at 6'0, 200 pounds without losing speed and mobility.
Tools:
Despite the outstanding numbers and career, Beckham is not without flaws. Hitting, his swing is not picture peferct by any means. His bat is perpendicular with the ground (which makes his swing long, but gives him more bat speed). His high leg kick also gives him more power but leaves him a little off balance and he has a "funky" beginning to his swing.
Defensively, the word is he can stay at SS. He wouldn't be much better than average however. He moves laterally pretty well and has a good arm, but he dosent jump out at you.
He is a solid all around athlete who can run, but wont steal a ton of bases in he majors
Beckham has only walked 12 times in 100 Abs this year. He isnt a hacker but he goes up there swinging. For example: against Miss State. He swings at the first pitch and fouls it off, then lays off two good pitches to work the count 2-1. Then swings at a good slider away that he cant do much with (fouls it off). So, instead of being 3-1 and knowing he is gonna get a FB, he is now 2-2.
Projection:
Beckham is just an all around solid prospects - nothing is great, but nothing is below average either.
Beckam is going to have to realize he is not a power hitter and change his approach and add some conact ability to his game. As mentioned earlier, he is a bit of a free swinger. To his defense, he IS that UGA lineup. He is hitting third and his team is depending on him to be their main power source.
With that said, he can hit for power (20 - 25 HR). However, at what cost? Is he going to hit .250 while doing it?
While he is a free swinger, he has also only struck out 9 times this year. So, as he improves his appraoch, and shows a willingness to use all fields, he could hit .290 and drive in 20-25 HRs.
He is a little pull happy right now, he is going to have to accept some singles the other way.
Either way, he projects to be an offensive 2B or SS. Playing 2B could move him into the all star level.
Comparisons:
How about a less defensivley gifted Khalil Green?? I say Green's offense with Michael Youngs defense. I think this is very fair in that both those players were good college ball players. Green hit for tons of power at Clemson and just hit 27 HRs playing at Petco...I am not saying Beckham will do that, but physically they are very similar as well.
Draft:
As you can see from the projections, I do not have him getting out of the top 15. He is the best college middle INF in the draft.
Video:
Here is the MiLB draft scouting report http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2008/index.jsp?mc=beckham
Not alot of video on him out there - if you live in the South, CSS is scheduled to show alot of UGA baseball games this year.
Here is the schedule:
4/1 @ 7PM
4/20 @ 9 PM
5/7 @7 PM
5/9 @ 7 PM
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Draft Projection - March 25
1) Rays - Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri - The Rays already have ridiculous pitching but you can never have too much. Alvarez does not make sense because of Longoria...I think Tim Beckham is a possibility but they like Brignac alot.
4) Orioles - Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina - Much like the Pirates, the Orioles will be looking for a "now" guy that will not take 4 years to develop. It is not like they are selling themselves short, Smoak is a legit power threat.
5) Giants - Tim Beckham, SS, High School - The top all around tools guy slips to 5?? If the Rays don't pick him, I just see the other 3 teams taking a more polished player. Giants fans are crossing their fingers they don't take another pitcher.
6) Marlins - Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami - Taking a local boy can't hurt the Marlins. Their current system has a lack of position players with all around hitting skills. Alonso is also a safe bet to hit for average and get on base. Guys like Hosmer, Cole, and Melville will have too high of a price tag right here as well.
7) Reds - Tim Melville, RHP, High School - Best high school pitcher in the draft. Tall projectable frame. Not quite on the level of a Jarrod Parker as of right now.
8) White Sox - Aaron Hicks, CF, High School - Kenny Williams keeps saying he wants athletic position players (and then they took pitchers with their last 2 first rounders). However, if you want an athletic OF, Hicks is your guy.
9) Nationals - Kyle Skipworth, C, High School - Obviously, the Nats could go alot of directions here. However, hitting catchers like this do not come along every year. Offensively, he has more power than Joe Mauer, and can hit enough to play 1B if need be to move him. However, he has silenced some of the fielding questions so far this year.
10) Houston - Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky - This just seems like a typical Astros choice. Inexpensive, and not very flashy. I have read Friedrich's curve dosen't exactly warrant the comparisons to Hill and Zito. And his velo is average. The upside pick here would be Garret Cole or Eric Hosmer if they were not worried about money - but, they will be.
11) Rangers - Lance Lynn, RHP, Ole Miss - I think the Rangers are still wanting to improve their pitching even with their good young arms already in the system (Hurley, Feliz, Main, Beaven). Lynn brings to the table polish, and big game experience. Do not be surprised to see Gerrit Cole here as the Rangers aren't afraid to deal with Boras.
12) Athletics - Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia - Beckham has probably hit another HR as I type this. He and Lynn are shooting up the boards.
13) Cardinals - Harold Martinez, 3B, High School - Logical choice here really. Martinez could be a bargain if he lasts this long.
14) Twins - Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tualne - Lets face it, the Twins won't go upside with both of their first round picks. However, Hunt is a good pick any way you slice it.
15) Dodgers - Alex Meyer, RHP, High School - Would the Dodgers really take another HS pitcher in the first round? Why not? It has worked so far. Meyer is extremely projectable at 6'7 and there is no signability concerns.
16) Brewers - Buster Posey, C, Florida State - Brewers do not have a legit catcher on the big league team or in the minors. He can hit and stay at catcher.
17) Blue Jays - Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Fresno State - Blue Jays showed last year that they do not mind taking high school kids. However, Scheppers makes sense here as I do not think they will go over slot to sign someone.
18) Mets - Eric Hosmer, 1B, High School - Hosmer has as good of upside as anyone in the draft. Boras is his agent and the Mets are in dire need to upgrade their farm system and they have the money to take the best talent available. In this case, Hosmer.
19) Cubs - Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami - I will be honest, I don't know what the Cubs will do here (I am not sure they do either!) They are not usually big spenders (see Tyler Colvin) so a toolsy 2B makes sense here. I think the Twins might grab Weeks, in that case look for Brett Hunter.
20) Mariners - Brett Hunter, RHP, Pepperdine - Mariners proved last year that they are willing to make a different pick with Aumont. But, Hunter is a good fit for them in that they like to move their guys quickly and he is a quick mover.
21) Tigers - Issac Galloway, OF, High School - The Tigers traded away their toolsy OFs in Maybin and Gorkys Hernandez. They get one back with this pick.
22) Mets - Dennis Raben, OF, Miami - I do not think they will go over slot with both picks. I do not see them signing Hosmer AND Cole..that is a little too crazy. They may decide to go 1 hitter and 1 pitcher though. Sonny Gray is a possible arm.
23) Padres - Jacob Thompson, RHP, Virginia - Cheap, polished, and proven = Padres.
24) Phillies - Gerrit Cole, RHP, High School - Best velo in this years high school crop..maybe of the whole thing will drop due to signability. Phillies have the money and the need to improve their system.
25) Rockies - Brett Wallace, 1B, Arizona State - Great college player that won't cost a ton of money makes sense for the Rockies. Wallace is polished and could easily take over for Helton.
27) Twins - Xavier Avery, OF, High School - I'm calling this surprise. Twins love their fast outfielders - however, this is not Ben Revere..Avery projects for more power.
28) Yankess - Cody Satterwhite, RHP, Ole Miss- I do not think the Yankees go crazy in the draft this year. I think they are going to want to free up as much money as possible to sign some combination of KROD, Texeira, and Sabathia.
30) Red Sox - Brett DeVall, LHP, High School - Best fastball among prep lefties
** Ok, the top four college players will all want ML deals - so, Tim Beckham could actually cost less. KC could take him at 3. If that happens Orioles take Matusz, SF takes Melville, FLA takes Smoak, and Alonso drops to maybe Houston. I do not see SF taking Smoak when they have Villalona.
** What if Texas take Gerrit Cole? Then Lynn slips down to the A's, Cardinals still take Martinez, but the Twins would grab Beckham causing Hunt to drop.
Top Prospect - Brett Wallace
Brett Wallace, 1B/3B, Arizona State
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Brett Wallace can hit - fastballs, curveballs, changeups, oranges, grapefruit, pinatas...you get the idea.
So, the obvious question is: why don't most of the projection lists have him as a top 10 talent? I wondered the same thing - more specifically, why is there a feeling that Smoak, Hosmer, and Alonso are better 1B prospects.
Here are the findings:
- Some do view him as a top 10 talent: Keith Law says this: "for me, Wallace is a top 10 talent. Whether the teams drafting there see him as such is another question, but I wouldn't hesitate to take him very high. He's going to hit."
- Law gives this report: perhaps the best pure hitter in this year's draft. Wallace, a left-handed hitter, brings a great swing, a good eye and above-average power to the table. He keeps his weight back and whips the bat through the zone, squaring up balls everywhere in the zone, showing only a weakness for the high pitch. He shows plus raw power in BP, though in the game he's more apt to drive balls middle-out to the left-center gap.
- Something I feel Law leaves out here is the tremendous balance Wallace has in his swing...he uses those tree trunk legs as a great base to his swing.
- There is another knock on Wallace about his body. While I have not seen him in unerwear or modeling jeans, he is definatley not fat. His lower body is extremley muscular.
- There is a problem with his height: he is already 240 pounds at 6'1. That is fine, however, he has nowhere to go but out, which would decrease flexibility. So, he does not have alot of room to increase muscle...so that hurts his projection compared to Smoak and Hosmer.
- I asked Jim Callis this question in his EPSN chat:
Jim Callis: Wallace is having a great year, batting .448 with seven homers in 18 games. But it's not all about the numbers, especially in college baseball, where the competition varies and they're using metal bats. Scouts believe Wallace has more of a line-drive swing than a true power stroke, and if he plays first base (like they expect he will), that's somewhat of an issue. That said, it's not like scouts don't like Wallace a lot. At worst, I think he's a sandwich-round pick in June, and that's at worst.- The consenus seems to be that Wallace is more of a linedrive hitter who will hit for average..from the video I have seen, I would agree. However, his bat speed is above average, so it is not as if he cannot hit HR, it is more that he would need to add loft to his swing.
However, call me crazy, but the Rockies may be in play here with the 25th pick. If not, he will be gone early in the supp. round.
Video here:
He ripped the Netherlands on July 28th - hits a TANK at the 2:28 mark.
http://mlb.mlb.com/usa_baseball/article.jsp?story=national_schedule
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2008/index.jsp?mc=wallace
Saturday, March 15, 2008
Rising Prospect - Reese Havens
Reese Havens, SS, South Carolina
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Havens, a Charleston SC product has gotten off to a blistering start for USC this season: .379 with 4 bombs and 24 RBI out of the leadoff spot for the Gamecocks through 15 games.
Great start? Yes. Surprising? No.
Background:
Havens was ranked 6th on Baseball America's top 50 freshman list. Then dropped to 20th on the top 50 sophomore list.
Out of high school, the Red Sox were ready to draft him as their first round pick, and reportedly offered him over $1.25 million and he declined. The Rockies took him in the 29th round and offered him over $1 million and he declined.
Great article on him and good friend Justin Smoak here:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/highschool/050623smoakhavens.html
Havens subsequently hit .259 with 4 homers his Freshman year and followed that up with .274 and 5 HR his Sophomore year (yeah yeah should have taken the $$$)
Howeva (in a Steven A. Smith voice) Havens is now building off his terrific finish in the Cape Cod league in 2007 where he worked with former UNC Head Coach Mike Roberts. With USC Head Coach Ray Tanner's permission, Roberts lowered Haven's hands among other things - Havens hit .314 over the final two months. Roberts said he never had seen someone improve so much in such a short time in all his 30 years.
So here we are: a good 2007 Cape Cod showing and blistering the ball to start off 2008.
Jim Callis had this to say:
| Joe from Jersey asks: Where do you expect Reese Havens to go in the draft? He has had two sub-par seasons at South Carolina, but has played pretty well in his two summers in the Cape League (especially this past summer). Also, do you expect him to have a monster 2008 for the GameCocks? | |
 | |
| | Jim Callis: Funny you bring him up. There are a lot of Reese Havens arguments around, both in the BA offices and among teams. Basically, those who have seen him in the spring (area scouts, my BA brethren) have been less than impressed. Those who saw him make adjustments in the Cape last summer (mostly scouting directors and crosscheckers, whom I talked to while doing our Cape Top 30) are more impressed. The biggest thing working against him is that he can't play shortstop at the next level. I see him going in the second or third round as a third baseman. Someone may try to make him a catcher. |
So, is Havens playing his way into the first round? No
If he hits .350 this year, and shows power - say 10 HR, I would not be surprised if he goes late supp. round/2nd round as a offense oriented second baseman.
If a team really thinks he can catch (he has not caught before that I know of) that would increase his value.
Right now, I am saying he slows down, but still has a great year and helps USC get to Omaha - I'll say the Red Sox redraft him with the 11th pick in the compensation round.
Upcoming Schedule
Rising Prospect - Reese Havens, SS, South Carolina
Top Prospect - Brett Wallace, 3B/1B, Arizona State
In Depth - Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia
Top Prospect - Brett Wallace, 3B/1B, Arizona State
In Depth - Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Under Rated Prospect - Lance Lynn (updated March 15)
Lance Lynn, RHP, Ole Miss
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Say it with me in a Donald Trump impression - "he's huuuuuge"
To the tune of 6'5 - 260 as listed on the Ole Miss web stite. I don't know that he is 6'5, but 260 does not surprise me.
I say Lynn is under rated based on where I see him on preseason draft lists:
Baseball America does not even project him going in the first round.
Mymlbdraft.com does not project him going in the first round.
MLBdraftsite.com has him going 44th.
You get the idea.
So, am I crazy for saying he will be a top 15 pick? I do not think so, and here is why:
He has two plus pitches: a FB 92-94 with plus down curve that is a true strike out pitch.
He commands his FB well. He controls his curve ball well, but his command is iffy. To me, it is more of a swing and miss out pitch than a pitch he can throw for a strike.
Here is the game I have seen on which I am basing my opinion:
http://mlb.mlb.com/usa_baseball/article.jsp?story=national_schedule
He pitched the July 8 game v. Japan
My impressions:
- He got alot of swing and misses with his FB against a team that is known for making contact. This indicates to me that he has good late movement on the pitch. His FB is "heavy" meaning is has a nice sinking action. He does not throw a sinker by any means.
- His curve ball is a true, major league strike out pitch. He does need to be able to throw it for strike though, which he did not do a great job of in this outing. He will not be able to rely on pros swinging at that pitch in the dirt consistently.
- He has very sound mechanics for his size. He does tend to plant hard and torque on his left leg, which spins him towards first base. Usually this indicates that he might fly open, lose velocity, and leave pitches up. However, I did not see this in this particular outing.
- He commands his fastball better than I thought he might. He worked it to both sides of the plate, and kept it low in the zone.
- Did not rely and overuse curveball, which impressed me. He seemed content to just throw strikes with the FB and get ahead.
- He is lacking a 3rd pitch. He bounced a changeup and that is the only time I saw him throw it. It drives me crazy that every SP that does not have 3 above average pitches rumored to be a relief pitcher. Could he be a closer? Yes, I can see that. But I can also see him being a durable inning eater and a #3 SP on a very good team:
Comparisons:
He reminds me of a cross between Aaron Harang and Sidney Ponson (don't worry, more towards the Aaron Harang side).
I am looking forward to seeing him pitch on TV and possibly in the College World Series this year.
He has gotten off to an outstanding start this year, 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA with a 5:1 K to walk ratio.
However, the wins have been v. Minnesota, Indiana State, and TCU. So, it will be interesting to see how he fares in SEC play.
Lynn dominated rival Miss. State March 14 to improve to 4-0. Striking out 7 in 6 innings while giving up 4 hits and 0 runs.
In 25 innings with team USA - he had 26 Ks and a .136 BAA to go with a 1.80 ERA
Like I said, I think Lynn will work his way into the top 15 - I would not be suprised to see the Rangers, A's, Cardinals, or Brewers grab him.
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